My Lumia Quarterly Sales Estimate

Nokia are about to release their quarterly sales results for the first quarter of 2013 today, so I would like to get my estimate out there for sales of Nokia Lumia handsets. In case you are unaware, Lumia is the brand name given to the Finnish companies Windows Phone handsets.
I would like to point out that I do not have any expertise in this area, and it is based solely on my guess work. As far as subjects like profits, Average Selling Price etc etc, I do not have a clue. Also sales of Asha devices and feature phones is another area I won’t make a prediction on, due to my zero knowledge in the area.
My Prediction: Nokia will announce sales of Lumia devices for Quarter 1 2013 to be between 6.5 million and 7.5 million.

How do I come up with this number? Well, looking back at the previous sales numbers, shown in the graph below, we see that sales were doubling up until the 3rd quarter of 2012, when they dipped from 4 million to 2.9 million due to the fact customers were, according to Nokia, waiting for the new line of Lumia smartphones running Windows Phone 8. This seemed to be proven as sales for the 4th quarter of 2012, for which Windows Phone 8 devices were available for only two of the three month, increased to 4.4 million.

Nokia's Lumia sales per quarter.

Nokia’s Lumia sales per quarter.

I remember thinking at the time that 4.4 million was less than I guessed they would sell (I expected 7 million or so.) We were hearing reports that Lumia 920’s were selling faster than Nokia could produce them. So, I don’t think Nokia will double the sales of the last quarter, due to January and February being a notoriously slow month for any product to sell (excluding hot water bottles, if you’re in the UK). But, with the availability of the cheaper Lumia 620 released in January, as well as the Nokia Lumia 920 launching in China with a TD-SCDMA variant (Chinas 3G band) on the nations largest Mobile Phone operator, I do think sales number will continue to grow.

Oh, while I’m here I will take a stab at Apple iPhone sales for the last quarter. Apparently Q4 2012 saw them shift something like 48 million devices (either sold to customers or distributors, not sure.) I think that number will come down for Q1 2013 to between 40 and 43 million.

Remember, You heard it here first.

Well, in a few hours we can find out how accurate my guess is, until then I would be very interested to hear your opinions on this post, and any predictions you may have. Please feel free to leave a comment below.

Hope you enjoyed the article, and if you want to reach me, feel free to follow me on Twitter. I shall be back soon.

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Comments
5 Responses to “My Lumia Quarterly Sales Estimate”
  1. Just incase this article proves to be completely accurate, I’ll post this comment with the time and date as proof I made the guess before the numbers were released.

  2. james says:

    They sold 5.6 million…

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  1. […] may have caught my earlier post where I estimated sales of Nokia Lumia smartphones for the first quarter of 2013 would be between […]



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